A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
